Mortgage Rates: A Path to Improvement

1. Rates are forecasted to decline as the Fed reigns in inflation and continues its rate-cutting cycle.
2. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are expected to settle between 6.25% and 6.50%, a notable drop from the 7% levels of recent years.
3. This shift enhances affordability, creating opportunities for aspiring homeowners and those looking to refinance.

Real Estate: Demographics Drive Demand and Home Prices

1. Home prices are projected to grow by an average of 3.1% year-over-year, according to surveys from eight prominent housing industry organizations.
2. We believe limited housing supply and strong household formation could push home price appreciation higher to between 4%-4.5% for 2025.
3. Millennials and Gen Z are driving this demand, with homeownership rates expected to rise significantly over the next decade.

The Fed: Managing Expectations

1. The Federal Reserve's December 2024 Dot Plot indicates two quarter-point rate cuts are anticipated in 2025.
2. These cuts would lower the federal funds rate to between 3.75% and 4.00%, providing relief for short-term interest rate debt (e.g. credit cards, HELOCs, auto loans) and support economic growth.
3. The lower Fed Funds Rate will also reduce the returns consumers are receiving in money market funds, making treasuries and bonds (mortgage backed securities) become more attractive for investment and help drive down mortgage rates.

Inflation: Signs of Relief

1. The Fed monitors Core PCE inflation to guide monetary policy as it provides a stable measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices.
2. Easing shelter costs, which represent a significant portion of Core PCE, are contributing to a downward trend in overall inflation.
3. If inflation continues to decline, the Fed may have room to implement more than the two projected rate cuts in 2025, further reducing mortgage rates.

Labor Market: Shifting Dynamics

1. Unemployment is gradually increasing, signaling a shift toward a more balanced labor market that could ease wage pressures and inflation.
2. The labor market is also showing other signs of cooling with job openings steadily declining.
3. A cooler labor market may accelerate Fed rate cuts, further improving housing affordability.

Key Takeaways for 2025:

1. Mortgage rates may decline to the 6.25%-6.5% range, improving affordability.
2. Home price appreciation remains steady, with a projected 3.1% annual gain.
3. Inflation pressures ease, with Core PCE returning close to the Fed's 2% goal.
4. Labor market adjustments suggest unemployment rising from 4.2% to 4.6% in 2025.
5. Sustained housing demand as household formations (1.9M) outpace housing starts (1.3M).

As these forecasts unfold, 2025 presents a promising yet dynamic landscape for buyers, homeowners, and sellers alike. Staying informed and planning strategically will be key to navigating this year's opportunities in the mortgage and real estate markets.